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  • 首页 >轮毂预警平台 > 预警动态与通知 > 新闻内容

    金华市轮毂行业外贸预警简报(2015年第三期)
    日期:2015/5/22 14:28:52 来源:预警点办公室

     金华市轮毂行业外贸预警简报

    第三期

     

    金华市轮毂行业对外贸易预警示范点编印        2015年5月21日

     

                     目           录

    1、中国4月制造业活动继续放缓

    2、中国制造2025规划望近期公布

    3、2015年以来我国促外贸政策密集出台

     

    中国4月制造业活动继续放缓

      中国4月制造业活动数据低于市场预期,制造业活动轻微下滑,中国一系列经济数据的疲弱趋势仍在持续。

      汇丰制造业采购经理人指数预览版从3月的49.6下滑至4月的49.2,为12个月低点。经济学家原本预测为49.6。产量略有增长,但新增业务总量连续第二个月下滑。该行业所面临的更为强大的通缩压力也突显出相对疲弱的需求状况,投入和产出价格均加速下跌。与此同时,制造业企业连续第18个月出现裁员。从好的方面来看,海外需求本月有所改善,新增出口业务出现3个月来首次增长。

      官方数据显示,中国第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长7%,为6年最慢。与GDP数据一同公布的其他数据让市场观察人士感到担忧,零售销售和工业产出增速双双低于预期,固定资产投资增速为自2001年初以来最慢。为了扩大银行放贷并扶持经济增长,中国央行决定释放由银行持有的资金,下调商业银行存款准备金率,下调幅度为2008年11月以来最大。

      中国经济放缓似乎与股市飙升并不相符。中国上证综指今年迄今已累计上涨36%,深圳成指上涨58%,这令该指数成为全球表现最佳的股市基准。

     

     

    中国制造2025规划望近期公布

      由四部委联合起草的《中国制造2025规划》(以下简称《规划》)已于近期上报国务院,有望于近期正式公布。《规划》提出了9大任务、10大重点发展领域和5项重点工程。其中,10大重点发展领域包括新一代信息通信技术产业、高档数控机床和机器人、生物医药等;5项重点工程则包括此前被外界寄予厚望的智能制造。

      智能制造推进工作将率先在智能工厂流程制造、离散制造、以个性化定制和电子商务等为代表的智能制造新业态和模式、智能装备和产品、智能化管理、智能服务6大领域展开试点。为此,工信部还详细划定了包括三维计算机辅助设计、云制造、电子商务、物流管理、能源管理在内的23个试点子领域。

       智能制造概念,最早于1990年代在日本工业界被提出,后来泛指利用信息技术参与生产的数据收集、分析、决策等环节,提高生产效率的生产方式。近年来,随着互联网、移动互联网技术的发展和应用,以及3D打印、能源网络等技术的不断成熟,智能制造的概念不断丰富。我国提出的智能制造目标,主要是利用信息化技术,实现制造业的数字化、智能化转变。

      目前,各界均将中国制造2025视为中国版的工业4.0”,而智能制造则被认为是信息化和工业化融合的突破口,以及和互联网+思路的结合点。博时基金[微博]研报认为,中国不少产业仍处在工业3.0,甚至工业2.0阶段,如机器人、增材制造等核心技术还有待提高,技术路线和标准也有待统一制定,工业4.0将是中国未来工业的发展方向,而智能制造则将成为制造业转型升级的催化剂,以及中国制造2025顺利实施的重要支撑。

      此前,国务院常务会议部署加快推进实施中国制造2025以实现制造业升级。会议明确提出,要顺应互联网+的发展趋势,以信息化与工业化深度融合为主线,推进智能制造、绿色制造。工信部部长苗圩多次表示,完成从制造业大国向强国的转变,智能制造将是主攻方向。

      据工信部介绍,目前推动智能制造领域发展的总体思路和目标已经明确,即通过试点示范,关键智能部件、装备和系统自主化能力大幅提升,产品、生产过程、管理、服务等智能化水平显著提高,智能制造标准化体系初步建立,智能制造体系和公共服务平台初步成形。试点示范项目实现运营成本降低20%,产品研制周期缩短20%,生产效率提高20%,产品不良品率降低10%,能源利用率提高4%。

      多家券商和研究机构研报认为,随着中国制造2025的稳步推进,智能制造有望成为未来中国制造业转型升级的重要路径之一。

      工信部近期调研显示,目前企业对智能制造抱有极大的热情,部分率先尝试智能制造的企业已取得显著效果,但制造业企业仍存在不少问题,如生产全流程智能化程度有待提升,装备、关键部件、核心技术对外依赖程度较高,数据价值挖掘不足等,需要通过加快推进智能制造发展来解决。

     

     

     

    2015年以来我国促外贸政策密集出台

      经过几年的酝酿,5月12日国务院印发《关于加快培育外贸竞争新优势的若干意见》(下称《意见》),明确了中国将全面提升与“一带一路”沿线国家经贸合作水平,推动外贸结构调整,营造法制化的营商格局等方面内容,并做出了方向性的判断。此前几天,海关总署公布的外贸数据显示,延续3月进出口双降的趋势,4月依然呈现双降的疲弱态势。

      商务部研究院对外贸易研究所所长李健曾参与过早期政策相关课题。他认为,此时出台这类政策,有多方面因素的考虑,主要为了落实十八大提出的培育外贸新优势的观点,未来有望出台进一步的细则。此外,外贸近期状况不佳,也是考虑因素之一。清华大学中美关系研究中心高级研究员周世俭认为,《意见》大体上是关乎未来方向性的内容,今年外贸企业如此困难,真解决问题还需落实,并出台有针对性的具体政策。

      促进外贸政策连续出台

      今年以来,国务院各部门连续出台促进外贸政策。继海关商检等部门出台了贸易便利化等措施之后,国务院常务会议也部署了完善消费品进出口相关政策,丰富国内消费者购物选择。

      外贸政策的核心是税务(关税和出口退税),以及汇率政策。对资金压力比较敏感的小微企业来说,汇率政策和税务负担直接影响企业的利润和资金周转速度。

      但在周世俭看来,落实依然有很大的空间,需要加强协调。春节外贸非正常走势之后,3~4月的外贸走势较为低迷,进出口都出现了10%左右的同比下滑。这其中尤其是进口下滑较为明显。在一些业内人士看来不太正常的是,虽然3月份之后大宗商品价格开始明显回升,进口数据依然低落。

      另一方面,今年的汇率也开始逐步回升。除了美元汇率对人民币没有贬值之外,其他主要货币对人民币都出现了贬值。今年的汇率政策可能会持续走强。原因是,中国正在积极争取国际货币基金组织(IMF)的人民币特别提款权,促进人民币国际化进程。

      培育新的比较优势

      各种有效政策能否落实,决定外贸提振的政策效果。在3月底4月初,由于得知3月数据不太乐观,包括发改委、商务部、海关总署等外贸主管部门已经组织到多地外贸企业调研,并试图找到破解之策。今年前4个月,我国进出口总值7.5万亿元,比去年同期(下同)下降7.3%。其中,出口4.23万亿元,增长1.8%;进口3.27万亿元,下降17%;贸易顺差9653.7亿元,扩大3.4倍。

      长期来看,此次《意见》也需要让各部门真正统一认识,以解决长期存在的外贸发展体制性问题。《意见》强调,要大力推动我国外贸由规模速度型向质量效益型转变,努力实现五个转变:一是推动出口由货物为主向货物、服务、技术、资本输出相结合转变;二是推动竞争优势由价格优势为主向技术、品牌、质量、服务为核心的综合竞争优势转变;三是推动增长动力由要素驱动为主向创新驱动转变;四是推动营商环境由政策引导为主向制度规范和营造法治化国际化营商环境转变;五是推动全球经济治理地位由遵守、适应国际经贸规则为主向主动参与国际经贸规则制订转变。

      金融危机之后,中国外贸走势受外部市场需求不振、内部人力成本提升影响,也连连受挫。这种情况下,从2010年《后危机时代中国外贸发展战略研究》报告提出十年倍增计划以来,外贸主管部门一直在认真研究并力图找到破解之策,寻求新时期的比较优势。


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