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  • 首页 >轮毂预警平台 > 预警观察评论 > 新闻内容

    英国春季预算着眼长期经济发展
    日期:2017/3/22 9:36:06 来源:中国贸易救济信息网

      日前,英国财政部公布了2017年春季预算。在英国即将进入“脱欧”谈判之际,此项预算规划着眼于“脱欧”之后的长期经济发展。

      这项预算案出台之时正是英国经济表现超出各方预期之际。2016年英国经济增长强劲,全年增速为1.8%,四季度经济增速更是打破了此前多方对“脱欧”公投后英国经济的悲观预期。英国预算责任办公室预计,2017年英国经济增速将高达2%。

      但财政大臣哈蒙德表示,英国不能过度依赖过去的成就。哈蒙德的忧患不无根据。预算责任办公室数据显示,去年四季度经济增速之所以能超出预期,是因为家庭和商业开支相对稳定。但是,英镑贬值将导致今年通胀达到2.4%的高位,并将维持2%以上水平直至2019年。这一趋势将导致消费下滑和私人投资缩水,也将成为短期内经济降温的直接因素。

      此外,哈蒙德表示,即使当前的就业率已经处于历史高位,但是劳动生产率仍然太低。作为直接影响居民实际收入水平、间接影响消费与投资的宏观指标,劳动生产率表现不佳成为制约英国经济长期动力的关键。

      在上述背景下,财政部表示计划在2021年之前将财政赤字规模控制在国内生产总值的2%以内,同时不断降低债务比例。哈蒙德表示,这一长期公共财政目标具有很大的弹性。如果未来经济增长受到“脱欧”冲击,政府可以采取相对灵活的财政刺激政策来支持经济增长。

      在中长期财政规划指引下,最新的财政预算着眼于构建长远经济增长动力,强调加强职业技能培养、基础设施提升和科技创新投资。

      针对高技术劳工数量不足的现状,财政部计划改革针对16岁至19岁青年群体技术教育模式,将专业技术培训课程时间提升50%,同时加强职业技能培训与就业对接,提升青年获得高薪职位的能力。

      相比于技术培训,此项财政预算将大量资源和注意力集中在高科技产业部门发展领域,计划通过政府投资和公共与私人部门的合作“确保英国继续在先进科技产业处于引领地位”。

      首先获得政府关注的科技产业部门是移动通讯和高速宽带领域,其核心是5G发展战略。政府在第一阶段投入1600万英镑设立专门的5G技术中心,负责英国企业开展技术试验和与其他研究机构合作等。

      与此同时,政府还将通过产业战略挑战基金强化企业和科研机构的合作。预算计划在2017年至2018年投入2.7亿英镑解决制约英国产业转型和发展的关键技术问题。

      为了弥补“脱欧”之后可能出现的人才供给不足问题,政府计划投资4亿英镑培养和招募人才。其中,政府将拨款3亿英镑用于科学、技术、工程和数学领域项目的研究基金,上述科研基金将支持1000个博士学位。

      在基础设施领域,财政投入主要专注于移动互联网、宽带通讯网络和道路网络建设与更新。财政部表示,未来4年内将投入7.4亿英镑提升全国移动互联网和宽带网络。在道路项目方面,政府将向地方政府投入6.9亿英镑以提升地方交通网络,直接投入2.2亿英镑解决战略公路网络关键节点的运力提升,同时重点提升公路和铁路沿线的移动通讯网络覆盖。

      在上述“保增长”诉求之外,此次预算案的另一大特点是提升居民生活水平。2017年至2018年公共财政支出总体规模为8020亿英镑,位列前三位的社会保障、医疗健康和教育支出规模合计高达4960亿英镑。政府还进一步提升了个税起征点,试图以此扭转此前经济快速复苏难以惠及底层民众的态势。

    (信息来源:中国经济网)


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