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    法国经济复苏进入加速通道
    日期:2017-3-27 13:51:45 来源:中国经济网

      法国统计局近日公布法国总体经济运行形势最新报告,预计法国今年前两季度经济增速将分别为0.3%和0.5%。尽管当前仍面临通胀上升压力,但消费水平将继续增长。法国统计研究所经济学家表示,法国经济形势在奥朗德即将卸任的最后一年出现了好转。

      在当前政治“不确定性”尤其是欧洲面临的政治风险仍未完全消退及2016年末石油价格上涨的背景下,商业谨慎情绪有所好转。法国统计局公布的数据表明,当前法国商业氛围向好,整体商业环境保持健康稳定态势,尤其是2月份法国工业信心指数达107点,为2011年7月份以来的最高点。法国统计局经济学家多里昂·鲁舍认为,当前法国商业环境的好转,尤其是工业领域信心指数回升,说明外部需求正逐渐改善。

      报告指出,法国出口及外贸领域在2016年实现了好转,这种外部需求的反弹将有利于今年一季度继续刺激投资领域的增长。同时,融资环境改善及投资额外征摊税务将于今年4月份终止,也将对外部需求增长起到客观助推作用。法国统计局经济形势部主任弗拉基米尔·帕斯表示,近期通胀上升虽然在一定程度上削弱了法国的家庭购买力,但其对家庭储蓄的抑制作用客观上平抑了对消费增长的负面影响。报告预测,法国家庭购买力在今年一季度将出现停滞,二季度实现0.2%的轻微增长,并在上半年实现0.4%的增长。同时,法国家庭投资在今年一季度也将实现约1%的增长,从而有效推动建筑行业复苏。目前,法国经济形势正进入良性循环周期,劳动力市场的改善也日益推动着家庭投资复苏。多里昂·鲁舍认为, 2016年就业形势的改善将延续到今年,预计2017年上半年将继续创造约40000个就业岗位。据此推算,法国本土失业率到今年6月份有望下降0.2个百分点,达到9.5%。

      在法国统计局公布该报告后,法国财政部长萨潘也给予了积极评价:“当前各项经济数据均表明,法国自2015年呈现的经济复苏态势正得到巩固,也再次证明政府此前制定的经济增速至2017年达到1.5%的目标是‘认真的’。”

      但是,面对法国统计局充满“乐观”的预测,有部分经济专家仍持怀疑态度,认为“统计局公布的数字为人们描绘了一个‘充满阳光’的未来,按照统计局专家的预测,法国2017年上半年经济增速有望达到1.1%,将与2016年全年的经济增速持平。但同时也应看到,当前法国内部商业环境与宏观经济形势的改善更多是受外部因素影响,其内在结构性问题仍未得到有效解决,且总统大选在即,众多‘不确定性’仍将考验市场的‘信心’与‘免疫力’”。有法国民众也表示,尽管当前经济复苏呈现良好态势,但数字并不能代表一切,家庭收入、购买力及就业等仍是法国民众最关心的实在标准。


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