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  • 首页 >轮毂预警平台 > 预警观察评论 > 新闻内容

    全球经济在挑战中前行
    日期:2017-5-31 14:19:09 来源:人民日报海外版

           2016年接连出现的英国“脱欧”、特朗普当选等“黑天鹅”事件,给2017年的世界经济带来了不确定性和悲观情绪。然而2017年即将过半,世界经济发展正呈现出一系列积极的特点,并有望继续在挑战和机遇中砥砺前行。

    复苏:全球经济整体回暖

           “在世界经济遭遇金融危机近10年后,全球复苏终于变得‘普遍而稳固’。”根据布鲁金斯学会和英国《金融时报》联合编制的“全球经济复苏追踪指标”,近几个月来,发达经济体和新兴市场经济体的增长都已明显提速。

           美国联邦储备委员会日前公布的5月份货币政策会议纪要显示,绝大多数美联储官员认为,美国就业增长稳定,居民收入和财富稳步增长,消费信心保持强劲。欧洲央行总裁德拉吉上周表示,欧元区经济成长为十年来最佳,复苏气势“既广泛又稳健”。据《日本经济新闻》网站报道,日本经济已实现连续5个季度增长,消费和出口均有所好转。

          “过去半年来,全球经济明显转暖、走向复苏。” 社科院世界经济与政治研究所经济发展研究室主任徐奇渊在接受本报采访时表示,中国外部经济综合采购经理指数(PMI)已连续上涨半年,美国、日本、英国和欧元区、印度、土耳其、巴西等国的最新数据都处于扩张区间。

          由于看到了贸易和投资支出增加的迹象,最近许多国际机构都上调了今年的全球增长预期。日前,国际货币基金组织发布《世界经济展望》更新报告,预计全球经济2017年将增长3.5%。“在活跃的金融市场以及制造业和贸易领域期待已久的周期性复苏支持下,全球经济自2016年第四季度开始加速,这一势头一直在持续。”

          在中国国际经济交流中心研究员张永军看来,目前世界就业、贸易、价格三大领域的指标向好,为经济整体形势持续好转提供了有力支撑。美国劳工部5月发布的月度非农就业报告显示,4月美国的失业率降至4.4%,创10年来最低水平。“这段时间国际贸易增长明显加快,美欧贸易形势超出预期。主要国家的工业品价格今年同比上涨,对于企业来讲是有力的信号。”张永军说。

    稳定:贸易冲击弱于预期

           近年来,随着发达国家民粹主义和孤立主义浪潮兴起,“贸易保护主义”倾向抬头,各类不确定性因素增加。但目前看来,“贸易保护主义”并未使世界丧失经济增长的动力,特朗普政府的“美国优先”立场并未引发“蝴蝶效应”。

           “全球化的步伐从未停止,整个世界还是在以多边谈判的方式保护自己的利益。”青岛大学财富管理研究院院长易宪容指出,即使特朗普希望贸易保护,退出多边协议,其他国家仍会继续维护贸易自由政策。据《华尔街日报》报道,新西兰贸易部长托德·麦克莱日前声称,虽然美国总统特朗普决定让美国退出《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》,但该协定其余11个参与国已经达成一致,将继续推进协定。

           在张永军看来,“贸易保护主义”有限的负面影响被经济形势的整体好转抵消了。“由于经济形势欠佳,全球‘贸易保护主义’的影响在过去两年更为明显。年初普遍担心全球化的逆风会不利于世界经济,但现在看来影响没有预期的那么大。”

           也有分析认为,特朗普想继续推进全球化和国际贸易,只不过他想通过双边谈判的机制来寻求“有利于美国”的全球化。英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员马丁·沃尔夫曾撰文批评称,特朗普政府“想在一个商业本身就多边化的世界里取得双边贸易平衡”,必将招致失败。

           法国总统马克龙的当选则表明了欧洲的经济态度。正如对手勒庞所言,今后的法国是“爱国主义”与“全球化主义”的较量,马克龙当选对于抵制国内反全球化浪潮无疑起到了一定的刹车作用。据新加坡《联合早报》报道,马克龙当选总统后,欧元兑美元和日元一度创下新高,亚洲股市也普遍高开。马克龙的胜出有助于稳定欧洲单一市场,加强接下来和英国“脱欧”谈判的实力。

    合作:新经济体重塑格局

           国际货币基金组织4月份发布的《世界经济展望》显示,2017年至2018年全球经济增长前景向好的主要支撑因素是新兴市场和发展中经济体经济增长预期加快。在近日发布的2017年《亚洲及太平洋地区经济展望》中,国际货币基金组织再次强调亚太地区的增长在全球范围内是最强的。

           张永军称,由于目前大宗商品价格同比上升,新兴市场、发展中国家的经济形势逐步好转,但程度有所不同。由于巴西、俄罗斯对大宗商品市场依赖程度较高,价格上涨后从出口中获取的收益较大。

          早在今年2月,普华永道会计师事务所就公布了一份题为《2050年的世界:全球经济秩序如何改变》的报告。报告预测,到2050年,全球经济重心将由G7转移到E7(巴西、中国、印度、印尼、墨西哥、俄罗斯、土耳其),新兴经济体将会成为全球经济发展的引擎。

           对此易宪容指出,目前来看,世界对新兴经济体不应抱过高期望。“新兴经济体在国际贸易中所占比重较小,发达国家仍在主导国际货币体系,几乎不可替代。”然而宏观来看,新兴经济体的发展将有望改变全球经济增长的不均衡态势。根据联合国《世界经济形势与展望2017年年中更新报告》,东亚及南亚仍是全球最具活力的地区,而南美经济复苏缓于预期,非洲一些地区的人均国内生产总值有停滞或下降。联合国经济和社会事务部助理秘书长莱利·蒙泰尔说:“为实现平衡的、可持续的全球经济复苏,同时确保无一地区掉队的目标,需要加强全球对于国际政策合作的承诺”。

           在当前形势下,新兴经济体打造的亚投行、金砖国家组织和“一带一路”等新的合作形式为全球经济治理体系提供了有益的补充。这些举措必将与原有的机制一起不断推动贸易自由化、投资便利化、区域一体化,并最终成为改善全球经济格局的重要力量。


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