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    中国经济:增长质量提高,内生动力加强
    日期:2017-6-16 17:20:53 来源:人民网

    结构性改革成效显著获积极评价

    近日,经济合作与发展组织(OECD)提交了首份《G20结构性改革进展的技术性评估报告》,并经G20财长和央行行长会议审议通过。《报告》认为中国结构性改革取得积极进展,成效显著。中国经济进入新常态,生产率增长及高水平就业已成为经济增长的主要动力,人均收入增速保持高位、分配差距进一步缩小,并通过三证合一一站式监督等放管服改革措施减少了行业准入壁垒,提高了整体经济效率。

    北京大学国家发展研究院研究员李昕认为,总体而言,评估结果较客观地反映了各国近年来在各领域的发展变化,对我国结构性改革的进展及取得的阶段性成绩给予的积极评价符合我国发展情况。

    近年来,全球结构性改革越来越受重视,对结构性改革的评估是全球经济发展的一种重要评估,这个报告较好反映了近年来中国经济社会的发展变化。中共中央党校国际战略研究所世界经济室副主任陈建奇说,在全球经济增长乏力的背景下,中国经济增速在主要经济体中表现相当抢眼,对世界经济增长的贡献越来越大,经济发展的质量和效益也在稳步提升。

    工银国际研究部主管、首席经济学家程实认为,中国结构性改革的积极进展,不仅为各国改革提供了前沿的实践经验,也通过一带一路建设与国际产能合作,引领和拉动了区域经济的结构性改革,为全球经济发展做出了重大贡献。

    反映经济结构变化的指标逐年改善

    在去年的G20杭州峰会上,中国为促进G20匹兹堡峰会提出的实现全球经济强劲、可持续、平衡发展目标,开出了结构性改革这一药方,并围绕促进贸易和投资开放、推进劳动力市场改革等9个结构性改革的优先领域提出了评估指标。

    李昕认为,从OECD9个领域定量评估结果的纵向比较看,我国结构性改革已取得阶段性成效,营商环境的不断改善,增强了微观主体活力,研发支出与劳动生产率水平的持续增长,提高了经济的内生增长动力,绝大部分反映经济结构变化的指标呈现逐年改善趋势。

    一方面,虽然我国经济增速回落至7%以下,但连续4年年均1300万人以上的城镇新增就业规模,说明我国经济增长的质量正不断提高。这在全球经济持续多年脆弱复苏、贸易保护主义与逆全球化趋势不断抬头的背景下,是一个了不起的成就,这也是我国坚定实施各项结构性改革措施的结果。另一方面,一国长期可持续发展取决于全要素生产率水平决定的潜在供给水平。我国是人口大国,劳动力是生产重要的要素投入。劳动生产率水平也作为全要素生产率水平重要的组成部分影响着我国长期经济增长。《报告》显示,2016年,以不变价购买力平价水平衡量的我国劳动生产率水平比2007年国际金融危机前增长约1倍,从另一侧面反映我国经济增长的内生动力日益强化。

    程实认为,目前结构性改革取得成果,是合理的政策搭配发挥了重要作用。积极的财政政策,适度扩大了总需求,增加企业盈利以应对债务和冗员问题,进而推动三去一降一补切实落地;有效的预期管理,适时消解了中国经济和人民币的外部看空压力,坚定了中国结构性改革的正面预期。

    经济增长稳中向好态势有可持续性

    事实上,不仅是OECD评估报告对近年来我国结构改革的成绩单给予积极肯定,近期国际货币基金组织(IMF)上调了对我国2017年全年经济增长预期,由前值的6.6%上调至6.7%,表明国际上对中国经济增长的态势很有信心。

    今年以来的经济运行中,在供求关系、质量效益、市场预期和微观主体的活力方面继续呈现了很多积极变化,使当前我国稳中向好的发展态势增强了可持续性。

    陈建奇认为,中国经济发展进入新常态后,与经济增速换挡相伴随的是结构性调整和动力转换,这将使中国经济发展更加健康、更可持续。从近几年经济数据看,中国经济已稳定在6.5%左右的中高速增长水平,这样的经济增速有利于扩大就业和经济结构调整,符合全面建成小康社会的目标要求。

    程实认为,中国经济发展有两方面的亮点值得长期关注。一是“L”型下行蕴含结构性机遇,消费升级、共享经济、一带一路、国企改革等新增长点具有广阔前景;二是人民币汇率运行将长期企稳,并且在一带一路的推动下,人民币国际化有望择机加速推进。

    考虑到我国经济体量不断上升,在基数较大的情况下,经济增长能实现目前的中高速水平实属不易,这是十八大以来我国坚持结构性改革、坚持市场化取向的成果。李昕认为,相信随着改革的进一步深入推进,经济运行中的积极变化将会越来越多,经济总体平稳、稳中向好的态势是能够持续的。



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