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    发达经济体复苏步伐加快
    日期:2017-6-27 9:38:38 来源:国际商报

    近期,国际货币基金组织、世界银行和经济合作与发展组织(OECD)先后上调了2017年世界经济增长预期,肯定全球经济格局继续延续良好的复苏态势。

    总体来看,中国民生银行研究院最新发布的《20175月宏观经济形势分析报告》也认同全球经济正走在复苏通道的判断,但其也注意到发达经济体复苏的步伐尽管在加快,可也显现出了一些疲态,后续还需各国政府和货币政策机构推动经济进一步调整。

    美国经济略显疲态

    报告引用美国最新公布的5月份经济数据指出,5月份美国经济的好消息是生产端继续扩张,坏消息是消费增速下滑、劳动力市场复苏放缓、进出口有所回落且通胀率弱于预期。

    在此背景下,报告称,虽然6月货币政策会议上美联储如约加息,可美联储声明中没有再次出现增长放缓可能是暂时现象的表述,只是承认通胀有所回落,就业增长温和,强调经济活动持续温和增长。不过,美联储还是将2017年的国内生产总值(GDP)增长预期从2.1%上调至2.2%,将PCE通胀预期从1.9%下调至1.7%

    除了加息之外,美联储此次会议声明中还发布了超预期的缩减资产负债表计划。报告进而认为,缩表可能会部分挤压加息空间,下半年加息的节奏可能有所调整,9月加息概率下降。

    报告强调,美国经济近期表现并不靓丽,而美国总统特朗普新政又面临重重阻力:税改法案谈判环节漫长,预计2018年才能通过;基建资金来源仍不明确,缺乏州政府配合;弹劾风险下降,但负面情绪和反对声音可能形成长期掣肘。这些无疑会给美联储的货币政策正常化之路和美国经济前景增添更多的不确定性。

    欧洲经济有待观望

    相比美国,近期欧洲经济表现无功无过。

    从数据上看,报告指出,5月份欧元区经济持续复苏,通胀再现疲软迹象。生产端延续扩张趋势。消费继续回暖、进出口明显加快、就业市场持续向好。

    欧洲央行似乎也对欧洲经济近期表现比较满意,在6月货币政策会议上宣布维持当前的货币政策不变,并维持每月600亿欧元的资产计划。

    报告分析说,与5月议息会议声明相比,欧央行将欧元区经济面临下行风险改述为风险大体均衡,删除了进一步下调利率的表述,并上调了今年和未来两年的经济增速预期。这表明欧央行对经济前景持乐观态度,并关闭了进一步降息的大门。同时,由于油价下跌,欧央行还下调了通胀预期,将2017年通胀预期由此前的1.7%下调至1.5%2018年的通胀预期从1.6%下调至1.3%2019年的通胀预期从1.7%下调至1.6%。欧央行行长德拉吉在各类场合多次表示,近期欧元区通胀率的上升主要得益于能源价格上涨,通胀回暖能否持续仍然存疑。

    总体看,报告称,欧央行此次议息会议调低了进一步降息的可能性,但对于削减大规模刺激措施仍然持谨慎态度。预计在欧元区通胀率出现明显好转之前,欧央行的谨慎态度不会有大的改变。

    日本经济持续改善

    至于日本,报告指出,5月日本经济继续改善。生产端扩张趋势稳固,通胀有所改善,只是消费和进出口增速有所下滑。

    尽管如此,报告认为,2016年三季度以来,日本经济增长势头有所增强,多项经济指标出现回暖,生产端延续扩张,企业资本支出上行,同时对外贸易好转,推动经济逐渐企稳复苏,呈现低速扩张态势。虽然一季度经济增速大幅下修(由环比增长0.5%回落至0.3%),但日本经济实现了连续五个季度的增长。从短期看,日本经济增长动能正在积聚。在4月举行的货币政策会议上,日本央行发布了9年来最为乐观的经济评估,称经济已经转向缓慢增长

    在日本经济持续改善的背景下,市场对日本央行撤出超宽松政策的期待有所升温。但从日本通胀表现以及日本中长期增长动能来看,报告强调,这一期待还为时过早:一是虽然日本通胀近期有所改善,但距离日本央行2%的目标还很遥远;二是在薪资增长乏力的情况下,个人消费需求难以大幅增长,因此经济增长的基础仍不牢固,并会制约通胀增长。



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