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  • 首页 >轮毂预警平台 > 预警观察评论 > 新闻内容

    新兴经济体经济发展压力再现
    日期:2017-6-27 9:40:26 来源:国际商报

     

      随着新一轮经济数据的陆续出炉,新兴经济体经济增长再次面临下行压力。近日,中国民生银行研究院发布的《2017年5月宏观经济形势分析报告》指出,国际金融学会(IIF)最新发布的增长跟踪指标称,5月份新兴经济体经济增速为5.6%,低于上月的6.8%,创今年以来的新低。同时,世界银行最新发布的《全球经济展望》也预计新兴经济体2017年整体经济增速为4.1%,较1月份的预测下调0.1个百分点。

      报告分析认为,大宗商品价格回落、美联储货币条件收紧以及中国经济增速放缓,是导致新兴经济体增速下滑的主要原因。

      巴西、南非经济前景低迷

      报告指出,近期巴西经济较之前略有好转。从数据来看,巴西5月制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)为52.0%,较上月上升1.9个百分点,为2013年3月以来最高值,并连续5个月保持上升趋势;5月服务业PMI为49.2%,较上月下降1.1个百分点。同时,通胀持续下行,5月通胀水平为3.6%,比上月下降0.5个百分点,为2011年以来最低值。

      在此背景下,巴西央行持续降息。资料显示,5月31日,巴西央行将基准利率从11.25%降至10.25%,连续第二次降息100个基点。自去年10月启动四年来的首轮降息周期后,巴西目前已削减了400个基点,使得5月以来巴西经济有所恢复,一季度国内生产总值(GDP)环比增长1.0%,结束了连续8个季度的衰退。不过,考虑到大宗商品价格回落以及巴西总统特梅尔因贿赂丑闻而面临弹劾危机,报告认为巴西经济复苏仍有可能受到影响。

      南非经济同样乏善可陈。报告指出,5月南非PMI为50.4%,较上月大幅回升7.2个百分点;4月制造业生产指数同比下降0.2%,降幅比上月收窄2.0个百分点。进出口有所下滑。南非4月出口从上月的同比增长6.1%转为同比下降0.1%;进口同比下降5.8%,降幅较上月扩大2.1个百分点。通胀也持续下降。南非4月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比上升5.3%,比上月降低0.9个百分点,连续5个月下降。

      总体而言,报告指出,现阶段的南非经济整体疲弱。受制造业和贸易部门疲软拖累,今年一季度南非GDP环比下降0.7%。国内政局动荡以及投资者信心不足最终妨碍了南非经济的复苏,致使一季度经济意外出现负增长。加之去年四季度GDP环比萎缩0.3%,连续两个季度的负增长显示出南非经济已陷入技术性衰退,二季度经济发展仍面临较大挑战。标准普尔和惠誉两家国际信用评级机构17年来首次将南非的主权信用评级调至投资级以下。

      印度、俄罗斯经济前景相对明朗

      相较之下,尽管印度和俄罗斯经济也面临一些挑战,可总体表现要比巴西和南非积极得多。

      报告称,5月份印度制造业PMI为51.6%,较上月下降0.9个百分点;4月工业生产指数同比上升3.1%,增幅比上月回落0.7个百分点,制造业增速有所放缓。不过,其服务业表现则有所企稳。数据显示,5月印度服务业PMI为52.2%,较上月上升2.0个百分点,连续4个月保持在荣枯线以上。同时,贸易状况良好。4月印度出口同比增长17.9%,较上月下降9.7个百分点;进口同比增长46.6%,较上月增加1.3个百分点,创2011年9月以来最高增速。通胀也有所回落,4月印度CPI同比上升2.2%,较上月下降0.4个百分点。

      基于上述数据,报告认为,虽然一季度印度GDP同比增长6.1%,较去年四季度下降0.9个百分点,创2015年以来经济最低增速,远不及市场预期的7.0%,但随着新版钞票流通逐渐正常,加之今年3月通过的《商品服务税法》能够有效减轻印度境内企业的税务负担,印度经济增速有望在二季度企稳。

      俄罗斯方面,报告称,5月制造业PMI为52.4%,比上月上升1.6个百分点,结束了连续4个月的下滑。服务业持续向好。5月俄罗斯服务业PMI为56.3%,比上月上升0.2个百分点,连续16个月高于荣枯线。消费端也有所改善,4月俄罗斯零售营业额指数由3月同比下降0.4%转为保持不变,结束了自2015年以来的持续下滑。进出口持续回暖,俄罗斯4月出口同比上升20.0%,尽管增幅比上月收窄15.2个百分点,但仍连续4个月保持高速增长;进口同比上升19.6%,增幅比上月收窄2.2个百分点,连续5个月保持高速增长。通胀压力持续缓解。5月俄罗斯CPI同比上升4.1%,与上月持平,维持2001年1月以来最低增幅。

      报告进而指出,目前,俄罗斯通胀水平已连续三个月在4%的官方通胀目标上方附近运行。据俄罗斯央行研究,如果通胀水平持续运行在4%附近,名义利率应设定在6.5%左右。尽管今年以来俄央行已两次降息,但关键利率水平仍维持在9.25%的高位。俄罗斯央行行长表示,俄罗斯利率水平还存在着进一步下调的空间,但取决于本国经济运行情况,包括实际通胀水平、通胀预期以及油价动态走势。




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