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  • 首页 >轮毂预警平台 > 行业动态 > 新闻内容

    外国机构怎么看中国经济“半年报”
    日期:2017-7-21 14:59:04 来源:新华社

      17日,国家统计局发布上半年中国经济数据,GDP增速为6.9%,延续了稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势。如何看待中国经济增速?供给侧结构性改革成效如何?推进“下半程”有何建议?记者采访了外国机构有关负责人,了解他们眼中的中国经济“半年报”。

      经济增长后劲十足,质量效益更加重要

      根据国家统计局发布的数据,上半年我国经济增速为6.9%,与一季度持平,经济增速连续8个季度保持在6.7%-6.9%的区间。

      今年以来,不少国际机构纷纷为中国经济“点赞”,认为中国经济走势平稳,增长后劲十足。国际货币基金组织将中国2017年GDP增速预估上调至6.7%。

      “我认为中国经济运行数据令人鼓舞,中国经济持续稳定增长,经济活动依然处在良好水平。”世界银行中国局首席经济学家李伟乔说,与此同时,中国政府在结构性改革层面正在取得扎实且意义重大的进展,尤其是在管控金融风险方面。

      国家统计局数据显示,主要经济指标持续回暖:前5个月规模以上工业企业的利润同比增长22.7%,服务业占比达到了54.1%,上半年城镇新增就业完成年度目标的66.8%……

      中国欧盟商会主席何墨池对上半年中国经济表现表示赞赏。他指出,中国外贸形势向好,消费增长强劲,这一切都得益于供给侧改革的推进,也将为经济持续增长提供动力。

      “中国有潜力在中期内保持增长,但要通过深入改革来实现这一目标。”国际货币基金组织第一副总裁大卫·利普顿的话语透出积极乐观:“而且目前增长依然强劲,能给中国足够的缓冲来减轻转型压力。”

      亚洲开发银行高级经济学家庄健表示,增长速度本身并不是问题核心,关键是要保持质量和效益,特别是调结构、转方式、惠民生等非数量性方面。增长的可持续性和质量效益更加重要。

      供给侧改革成效显著,多领域推进释放积极信号

      受访专家认为,中国供给侧改革进展成效显著,实现了生产率增长、高水平就业,人均收入增速保持高位。

      在17日召开的国新办发布会上,国家统计局新闻发言人邢志宏表示,在供给侧结构性改革深入实施的背景下,我国经济运行中积极变化不断增加,稳中向好的态势不断扩大。

      利普顿说,针对金融部门风险,中国实施了重要监管措施。重组和去产能的举措,促使企业债务增长放缓,并改善了供求关系;削减房地产过剩库存,让房价高涨势头也逐步得到控制。另外,创建的新企业自2014年以来增长了两倍。

      对于中国政府对中小企业减税的努力,李伟乔十分认可。“中小企业在中国经济转型中扮演越来越重要的角色,但普遍难以获得贷款。中国政府正有意识地采取措施帮助它们成长,这是非常积极的信号。”他说。

      “中国继续转向更可持续发展的经济路径,改革在广泛的领域取得进展。”利普顿说。尽管一些近期风险已经消退,但改革需要取得更快的进展,以确保中期稳定,并应对未来可能面临的潜在风险。

      何墨池表示,未来要继续推进去产能,并且为民营企业和外资企业创造更多市场机遇,以激发其在市场中的活力。

      供给侧改革要深化,金融监管需“加码”

      “上半程”稳中向好,“下半程”走势如何?国际机构普遍认为,随着供给侧改革和创新战略的推进,中国经济运行中的积极变化还会继续增加。不过在推进结构性改革的过程中,要特别注重发挥市场作用,以及防范金融风险。

      利普顿认为,要加快推进国企改革进程,并提高对违约和市场退出的容忍度;取消隐形壁垒,降低服务业准入门槛;去产能应该更大程度依赖市场的力量。

      何墨池也强调,只有更加注重市场作用,才能进一步激发外企和民营企业的活力。“比如‘中国制造2025’对内外资企业一视同仁,这一政策的落实就是市场导向的体现。”

      在淘汰落后产能、推进产业结构转型中,可能出现失业率上升风险。庄健认为,政府应该把社会安定放在更加重要的位置,投入更多资金安置下岗职工,这是保证供给侧改革成功的重要方面。

      刚刚闭幕的全国金融工作会议再度强调防控金融风险。“借助上半年较好的势头,下半年重点要放在防范系统性金融风险上。”德勤中国首席经济学家许思涛认为,应加强金融监管协调,补齐监管短板,健全风险监测预警和早期干预机制等。

      “中国保持当前经济增长固然重要,在经济脚步相对放缓的同时,我们乐于看见改革进展更快、成效更加显著。”李伟乔说。


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